From Specific to General in Electoral Cycle Models
Do Específico ao Geral nos Modelos do Ciclo Eleitoral
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21814/perspectivas.137Palavras-chave:
Ciclos Eleitorais, Persistência de OutputResumo
Neste trabalho considera-se uma forma de generalizar o modelo, dito estilizado, o qual é também específico, de ciclos eleitorais. Esta generalização consiste em admitir que o produto, de facto, exibe persistência, i.e. o valor corrente (poder) ser função (também) do seu valor passado. De uma forma integrada, analisam-se as consequências daquela generalização.
Downloads
Referências
Agnew, John. 1996. “Mapping politics: how context counts in electoral geography.” Political Geography 15: 129-146.
Alesina, Alberto. 1987. “Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 102: 651-678.
Alesina, Alberto, and Guido Tabellini. 1987. “Rules and Discretion with Noncoordinated Monetary and Fiscal Policies.” Economic Inquiry 25(4): 619-630.
Alesina, Alberto. 1992. “Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies.” Economics and Politics 4: 1-30.
Alesina, Alberto, and Nouriel Roubini. 1992. “Political Cycles in OECD Economies.” Review of Economic Studies 59: 663-688.
Alesina, Alberto, Gerald D. Cohen, and Nouriel Roubini. 1993. “Electoral Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies.” European Journal of Political Economy 9: 1-24.
Alesina, Alberto, and Roberto Perotti. 1994. “The Politics of Growth: A Survey of the Recent Literature.” World Bank Economic Review 8: 351-372.
Alesina, Alberto, and Dani Rodrik. 1994. “Distributive Politics and Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 109: 465-490.
Alesina, Alberto, Ozler Sule, Nouriel Roubini, and Phillip Swagel. 1996. “Political Instability and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 1(2): 189-211.
Alesina, Alberto, Nouriel Roubini, and Gerald Cohen.1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge (MA): The MIT Press.
Arrow, Kenneth. 1951. Social Choice and Individual Values. New Haven (CT): Yale University Press.
Barro, Robert. 1996. “Democracy and Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 1(1): 1-27.
Balke, Nathan. 1990. “The Rational Timing of Parliamentary Elections.” Public Choice 65: 201-216.
Balke, Nathan. 1991. “Partisanship Theory, Macroeconomic Outcomes, and Endogenous Elections.” Southern Economic Journal 57(4): 920-935.
Beck, Nathaniel, Kristian S. Gleditsch, and Kyle Beardsley. 2006. “Space is more than Geography: Using Spatial Econometrics in the Study of Political Economy.” International Studies Quarterly 50: 27-44.
Black, Duncan. 1948. “On the Rationale of Group Decision-making”. Journal of Political Economy 56: 23-34.
Black, Duncan. 1958. The Theory of Committees and Elec- tions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Buchanan, James M., and Gordon Tullock. 1962. The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy. Ann Harbor: The University of Michigan Press.
Caleiro, António. 1999. “What if Third Parties Disappear? A rational partisan note.” Estudos de Economia XIX(3): 349-356.
Caleiro, António. 2000. “The Political Economics of Election Dates – An overview with some stylized models of economic policy”. In Livro de Actas da 6.a Conferência do CEMAPRE: 557-575. Lisbon: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Caleiro, António. 2001. ”Essays on Election Dates, Eco- nomic Policies and Voters.” PhD Diss., European University Institute, Florence, Italy.
Caleiro, António. 2002. “Acerca das Dificuldades na Detecção Empírica de Ciclos Eleitorais: Uma explicação através de alguns desenvolvimentos teóricos recentes.” Economia e Sociologia 73: 5-22.
Caleiro, António. 2005. “Crescimento Económico e Ciclos Partidários: Uma clarificação da relação existente”. In Actas da conferência Políticas Públicas para o Desenvolvimento. Lisbon: Instituto Superior de Ciências do Trabalho e da Empresa.
Caleiro, António. 2007a. “Uma Análise do Papel Económico das Eleições.” Economia e Sociologia 84: 35-51.
Caleiro, António. 2007b. “Acerca das consequências políticas do envelhecimento populacional: Uma visão económica.” In Livro de Actas das VIII Jornadas do Departamento de Sociologia: 75-85. Évora: Departamento de Sociologia e Centro de Investigação em Sociologia e Antropologia ‘Augusto da Silva’.
Caleiro, António. 2009a. “The Political Economics Side of the J-Curve.” The ICFAI Journal of Applied Economics VIII(3-4): 23-37.
Caleiro, António. 2009b. “How upside down are political business cycles when there is output persistence.” Research in Economics 63(1): 22-26.
Caleiro, António. 2010a. “On the Synchronisation of Election Dates: The small vis-à-vis large economies case.” Re- vista de Economía Mundial 24: 193-212.
Caleiro, António. 2010b. “On the economic timing of elections: An optimal control case.” Portuguese Journal of Quantitative Methods I(1): 53-71.
Caleiro, António. 2012. “Output Persistence in Portugal.” International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance and Economic Sciences 2(3): 206-210.
Caleiro, António. 2014. “What if Output Persistence is Disregarded by an Opportunistic Incumbent?” International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance and Economic Sciences 4(4): 803-806.
Caleiro, António, 2016. “On the Political Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Election Results”. In Unemployment: Economic, Political and Social Aspects, edited by Tabitha Fletcher: 97-126. New York: Nova Science Publishers.
Caleiro, António. 2017. “Paz e Democracia – De que forma estão relacionadas?” Perspectivas, Journal of Political Science 17: 17-23.
Caleiro, António. 2018. Should electoral cycles disappear? Research Proposal available at http://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27086.10561
Cargill, Thomas F., and Michael M. Hutchinson. 1991. “Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 83(4): 733-739.
Chappell, David, and David A. Peel. 1979. “On the Political Theory of the Business Cycle.” Economics Letters 2: 327-332.
Chow, Gregory. 1977. “Usefulness of imperfect models for the formulation of stabilization policies.” Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 6(Spring): 175-188.
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.
Ellis, Christopher. 1991. “Endogenous Voting in a Partisan Model with Rational Voters.” Journal of Macroeconomics 13(2): 267-278.
Ellis, Christopher J., and Mark A. Thomas. 1991. “Partisan Effects in Economies with Variable Electoral Terms.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23(4): 728-741.
Franzese, Robert J., and Jude C. Hays. 2007. “Spatial Econometric Models of Cross-Sectional Interdependence in Political Science Panel and Time-Series-Cross-Section
Data.” Political Analysis 15(2): 140-164.
Gärtner, Manfred. 1994a. “Democracy, Elections, and Macroeconomic Policy: Two Decades of Progress.” European Journal of Political Economy 10: 85-109.
Gärtner, Manfred. 1994b. “The Quest for Political Cycles in OECD Economies.” European Journal of Political Economy 10: 427-440.
Gärtner, Manfred. 1996. “Political Business Cycles When Real Activity is Persistent.” Journal of Macroeconomics 18(4): 679-692.
Gärtner, Manfred. 1997a. A Primer in European Macroeconomics. Prentice Hall Europe.
Gärtner, Manfred. 1997b. “Time-consistent monetary policy under output persistence.” Public Choice 92: 429-437.
Gärtner, Manfred. 1999. “The Election Cycle in the Inflation Bias: Evidence from the G-7 countries.” European Journal of Political Economy 15: 705-725.
Gärtner, Manfred. 2000. “Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Developments.” Journal of Economic Surveys 14(5): 527-561.
Goyal, Sanjeev, and Klaas Staal. 2004. “The political economy of regionalism.” European Economic Review 48: 563-593.
Heckelman, Jac. 2002. “Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles: theory and some evidence.” Canadian Journal of Economics 35(3): 568-585.
Hibbs, Douglas. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review 71: 1467-1487.
Ito, Takatoshi. 1990. “The Timing of Elections and the Political Business Cycles in Japan.” Journal of Asian Economics 1(1): 135-146.
Jonsson, Gunnar. 1997. “Monetary Politics and Unemployment Persistence.” Journal of Monetary Economics 39(2): 303-325.
Kalecki, Michal. 1943. “Political Aspects of Full Employment.” Political Quarterly 14(4): 322-331.
Kayser, Mark Andreas. 2005. “Who surfs, who manipulates? The determinants of opportunistic election timing and electorally motivated economic intervention.” Ameri- can Political Science Review 99: 17-28.
Keppo, Jussi, Lones Smith, and Dimitry Davydov. 2008. “Optimal Electoral Timing: Exercise Wisely and You May Live Longer.” Review of Economic Studies 75(2): 597-628.
Kramer, Gerald. 1983. “The ecological fallacy revisited: aggregate- versus individual-level findings on economics and elections, and sociotropic voting.” The American Political Science Review 77(1): 92-107.
Lächler, Ulrich. 1982. “On political business cycles with endogenous election dates.” Journal of Public Economics 17: 111-117.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Martin Paldam. 2000. “Economic voting: an introduction.” Electoral Studies 19: 113- 121.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Mary Stegmaier. 2013. “The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years.” Public Choice 157(3-4): 367-385.
Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent. 2004. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Cambridge (MA): The MIT Press.
Lockwood, Ben. 1997. “State-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Unemployment Persistence.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 29(3): 286-299.
Lohmann, Susanne. 1993. “Electoral Cycles and International Policy Cooperation.” European Economic Review 37(7): 1373-1391.
Lucas, Robert. 1973. “Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs.” American Economic Review 63(3): 326-334.
Mankiw, N. Gregory. 2008. Principles of Microeconomics. Mason (OH): South-Western Cengage Learning.
Minford, Patrick, and David Peel. 1982. “The Political Theory of the Business Cycle.” European Economic Review 17: 253-270.
Minford, Patrick. 1990. “Ulysses and the Sirens: A Po- litical Model of Credibility in an Open Economy”. In Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies, edited by Anthony S. Courakis and Mark P. Taylor: 337-355. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Minford, Patrick. 1995. “Time-Inconsistency, Democracy, and Optimal Contingent Rules.” Oxford Economic Papers 47(2): 195-210.
Nannestad, Peter, and Martin Paldam. 1994. “The VP- Function: A survey of the literature on vote and popularity function after 25 years.” Public Choice 79: 213-245.
Nordhaus, William. 1975. “The Political Business Cycle.” The Review of Economic Studies 42(2): 169-190.
O’Loughlin, John. 2003. “Spatial analysis in political ge- ography”. In A companion to political geography, edited by John A. Agnew, Katharyne Mitchell and Gerard Toal: 30- 46. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action. Har- vard: Harvard University Press.
Persson, Tortsten, and Guido Tabellini. 1990. Macroeconomic Policy, Credibility and Politics. London: Harwood Academic Publishers.
Persson, Tortsten, and Guido Tabellini. 1999. “Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy”. In Handbook of Macroeconomics, edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford: 1397-1482. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
Persson, Tortsten, and Guido Tabellini. 2000. Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. Cambridge (MA): The MIT Press.
Persson, Tortsten, and Guido Tabellini. 2003. The Eco- nomic Effects of Constitutions. Cambridge (MA): The MIT Press.
Persson, Tortsten, and Guido Tabellini. 2006. “Democracy and Development: The Devil in the Details.” American Economic Review 96(2): 319-324.
Ploeg, Frederick van der. 1989. “The Political Economy of Overvaluation.” The Economic Journal 99: 850-855.
Rogoff, Kenneth, and Anne Siebert. 1988. “Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles.” Review of Economic Studies 55: 1-16.
Sapir, Andre, and Khalid Sekkat. 1999. “Optimum Elec- toral Areas: Should Europe adopt a single election day?” European Economic Review 43(8): 1595-1619.
Sargent, Thomas. 1987. Macroeconomic Theory. San Diego: Academic Press.
Sargent, Thomas. 1993. Bounded rationality in macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde memorial lectures. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Smith, Alastair. 1996. “Endogenous election timing in majoritarian parliamentary systems.” Economics and Politics 8: 85-110.
Svensson, Lars. 1997. “Optimal Inflation Targets ‘Conservative’ Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts.” American Economic Review 87(1): 98-114.
Taylor, John. 1980. “Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts.” Journal of Political Economy 88(1): 1-23.
Veiga, Francisco José, and Linda Gonçalves Veiga. 2004. “The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal”. Public Choice 118(3-4): 341-364.
Downloads
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Secção
Licença
Este trabalho encontra-se publicado com a Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0.
Authors must be sure that they have permission to reproduce copyright material, prior to submitting their articles to this Journal.
Authors must secure permission if they have permission to reproduce figures, tables, or any extract from the text of another source. This applies to direct reproduction as well as to any derivative reproduction.
In assigning copyright, authors retain their right to use their own material elsewhere, provided that the Journal is acknowledged as the original place of publication, and the Editorial Team is notified in writing in advance.
Further information on copyright policy please contact info@perspectivasjournal.com